The Unusual Increase in Suicides Among Women in Japan During The COVID-19 Pandemic: A Time-Series Analysis until October 2021.

BACKGROUND: Japan has witnessed an unusual increase in the number of suicides among women during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. An analysis is required to identify the influencing factors during the pandemic and develop new measures for preventing suicides. METHODS: Data on the number of monthly suicides were collected from the National Police Agency of Japan. The expected number of suicides among women during the pandemic was estimated using a time-series model based on pre-pandemic data, considering year-to-year trends. The observation-to-expectation (O/E) ratio of suicides was estimated from March 2020 to October 2021 using job status, suicide motive, and age. RESULTS: The number of suicides among women in Japan increased beyond the expected number until October 2021. The O/E ratio based on job status, suicide motive, and age (except self-employed, unknown job status, and women ≥80 years) was significantly above 1.0 from March-December 2020, and the increase in suicides continued in almost all categories in 2021. CONCLUSION: Although several reasons were reported for increased suicides among women in Japan during the pandemic (e.g., economic downturn, financial instability, and loneliness), suicides increased irrespective of job status, suicide motive, or age. The preventive measures for suicide without omission might have been important during the pandemic, as opposed to limiting interventions to the reported specific aspects.

Have restrictions on human mobility impacted suicide rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan?

During the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, various measures have been implemented to prevent the spread of infection, including restrictions on human mobility. A dynamic fluctuation in the number of suicides has been observed during this period. The question is whether the increase/decrease in suicides during the pandemic is related to changes in human mobility. To answer the same, we estimated incidence rate ratios (IRR) of suicide for changes in human mobility using the relative number of suicides by month from March 2020 to September 2021, based on the same months in 2019 as reference. The IRR of suicide during the pandemic were significantly lower in the months when mobility decreased-in both the previous and current month-than in the months when mobility was stable; the IRR of suicide were statistically higher in the months with increased mobility compared with the stable months. The burden from a decrease in one's mobility, which might lead to an increase in suicide, may not occur immediately, as seen in the delayed effects of unemployment. It may be important to investigate people's mental health and stress levels after pandemic restrictions were relaxed. The findings may help practitioners and families consider the timing of intervention.

Association of SARS-CoV-2 RNA Copy Number with the COVID-19 Mortality Rate and Its Effect on the Predictive Performance of Mortality in Severe Cases.

Factors associated with mortality are important in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is the gold standard for diagnosing COVID-19, which reflects the viral load in the upper respiratory tract. In total, 523 patients were enrolled in this study; of them, 441 and 75 patients underwent PCR testing of nasopharyngeal swabs and sputum samples, respectively, within 20 days from onset of COVID-19. We investigated the association between RNA copy number and the COVID-19 severity and mortality rate and its effect on the predictive performance for severity and mortality. RNA copy numbers in nasopharyngeal swabs were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the high RNA copy number (≥9 log10 /swab) in nasopharyngeal swabs was a factor associated with mortality (odds ratio, 4.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.510-13.100; P = 0.008). Furthermore, adding RNA copy number (≥9 log10 /swab) in severe cases, adjusted by duration from onset to PCR, improved mortality predictive performance based on known factors. The RNA copy number is a factor associated with the mortality of patients with COVID-19 and can improve the predictive performance of mortality in severe cases.

Predictors associated with clinical improvement of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: There are few agents that have been proven effective for COVID-19. Predicting clinical improvement as well as mortality or severity is very important. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the factors associated with the clinical improvement of COVID-19. METHODS: Overall, 74 patients receiving treatment for COVID-19 at Tokyo Medical and Dental University Hospital from April 6th to May 15th, 2020 were included in this study. Clinical improvement was evaluated, which defined as the decline of two levels on a six-point ordinal scale of clinical status or discharge alive from the hospital within 28 days after admission. The clinical courses were particularly investigated and the factors related to time to clinical improvement were analyzed with the log-rank test and the Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Forty-nine patients required oxygen support during hospitalization, 22 patients required invasive mechanical ventilation, and 5 patients required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. A total of 83% of cases reached clinical improvement. Longer period of time from onset to admission (≥10 days) (HR, 1.057; 95% CI, 1.002-1.114), no hypertension (HR, 2.077; 95% CI, 1.006-4.287), and low D-dimer levels (<1 µg/ml) (HR, 2.372; 95% CI, 1.229-4.576) were confirmed to be significant predictive factors for time to clinical improvement. Furthermore, a lower SARS-CoV-2 RNA copy number was also a predictive factor for clinical improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Several predictors for the clinical improvement of COVID-19 pneumonia were identified. These results may be important for the management of COVID-19 pneumonia.

Excess Mortality From Suicide During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic Period in Japan: A Time-Series Modeling Before the Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Suicide amidst the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is an important issue. In Japan, the number of suicides in April 2020 decreased by nearly 20% from that in 2019. To assess the impact of an infectious disease pandemic, excess mortality is often discussed. Our main purpose was evaluating excess mortality from suicide in Japan during the early pandemic period. METHODS: We used data on suicides collected by the National Police Agency of Japan until June 2020. We estimated excess mortality during the early pandemic period (March-June 2020) using a time-series model of the number of suicides before the pandemic. A quasi-Poisson model was employed for the estimation. We evaluated excess mortalities by the categories of age and sex, and by prefecture. RESULTS: No significant excess mortality was observed throughout the early pandemic; instead, a downward trend in the number of suicides for both sexes was noted. For males, negative values of excess mortalities below the lower bound of the 95% prediction interval were observed in April and May. All numbers of females during the period were included in the interval, and the excess mortalities in June were positive and higher than those in April and May. In Tokyo, the number of suicides was below the lower bound throughout the period. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that various changes, such as communication, and social conditions amid the early COVID-19 pandemic induced a decrease in suicides in Japan. However, continuous monitoring is needed to evaluate the long-term effects of the pandemic on suicides.

MuLBSTA score is a useful tool for predicting COVID-19 disease behavior.

BACKGROUND: The prediction of COVID-19 disease behavior in the early phase of infection is challenging but urgently needed. MuLBSTA score is a scoring system that predicts the mortality of viral pneumonia induced by a variety of viruses, including coronavirus, but the scoring system has not been verified in novel coronavirus pneumonia. The aim of this study was to validate this scoring system for estimating the risk of disease worsening in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This study included the patients who were treated between April 1 st and March 13 th , 2020. The patients were classified into mild, moderate, and severe groups according to the extent of respiratory failure. MuLBSTA score was applied to estimate the risk of disease worsening in each severity group and we validated the utility of the scoring system. RESULTS: A total of 72 patients were analyzed. Among the 46 patients with mild disease, 17 showed disease progression to moderate or severe disease after admission. The model showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of only 34.5% with a cut-off value of 5 points. Among the 55 patients with mild or moderate disease, 6 deteriorated to severe disease, and the model showed a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 71.4% with a cut-off value of 11 points. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that MuLBSTA score is a potentially useful tool for predicting COVID-19 disease behavior. This scoring system may be used as one of the criteria to identify high-risk patients worsening to life-threatening status.